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Sunday, May 20, 2012

D.A. RACE IN THE FINAL STRETCH

Here is our early handicap of the candidates based on what we know thus far:

CARMEN TRUTANICH (“Nooch”)
 
Is our early favorite. He’s raised by far the most money (approximately $1.5 million in 12 months), and has the most impressive list of endorsements.  He stumbled early with multiple hair-brained campaign goof-ups. But right now seems like the only candidate with enough fuel in his jets to get him over the finish line.  Seems to have broad support from Labor, Latinos and establishment types like California Governor Jerry Brown, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and L.A. County Sheriff Lee Baca.

Pluses: Healthy fundraising, high name recognition, nice guy, a true independent: Minuses: multiple hair-brained campaign goof-ups; signed a pledge in November 2008 to not seek higher office.

Endorsements: California Governor Jerry Brown, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Tom Torlakson, L.A. County Sheriff Lee Baca, Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, Former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, The Mexican American Bar Association PAC. SFV Congressman Brad Sherman Congressman John Garamendi, L.A. County Supervisor Don Knabe, Long Beach Mayor Bob Foster; Hawthorne Mayor Dan Juarez, National Latino Peace Officers Association. California Narcotics Officers Association, Latin American Law Enforcement Association, State Senators Darrell Steinberg, Ted Lieu, Kevin De Leon, Ron Calderon,  Lou Correa, and Gil Cedillo; L.A. City Councilmen Dennis Zine, Mitch Englander, Tom LeBonge, Joe Busciano, Bill Rosendahl, and Jose Huizar, San Francisco D.A. George Gascon, Orange County Sheriff, Sandra Hutchens, former Laker Shaquille O’Neal,  Torrance Mayor Frank Scotto, Redondo Beach Police Officers Association, El Monte Mayor Andre Quintero, Lancaster Mayor R Rex Parris, former D.A. Candidate and Deputy District Attorney Mario Trujillo, Los Angeles Port Police Association, Los Angeles General Services Police Association, Law enforcement Association of Asian Pacifics.

What the buzz is saying: He’s the candidate to beat. Fund raising and endorsements continue to pour in.  Most insiders expect he’ll win, if not in June, then in November.

Yes it’s true:  Attends black churches every Sunday.

JACQUELYN LACEY  (“Jackie”)

Running to be the first black woman to become District Attorney of Los Angeles. Lacey should poll ahead of Alan Jackson, Danette Meyers and Bobby Grace. She has the most seniority of them all. She has the endorsement of Steve Cooley (which so far hasn’t seemed to help her much.), and the L.A. Times.

Pluses: Currently serves as Chief Deputy in the office; Cooley& LA Times endorsements;     

Minuses: Support for Lacey has been tepid at best. Little to no name recognition. Cost the County millions defending her and Cooley’s union busting efforts; Perjured herself in a Federal Civil case.  

No war chest to promote her impressive endorsements. Fund raising has been anemic lately. Has only raised approximately $425,000 in 17 months. Her allegiance to Republican Cooley seems to turn off Democrats, and doesn’t seem to be helping much with Republicans.  Moderate Republicans will vote for Trutanich; Hard right-wingers will vote for Jackson. Handful of Cooley Republican friends will vote for Lacey.  Will split African American vote with Danette Meyers and Bobby Grace. Labor expected to spend heavily against her for past Union Busting tactics.

Endorsements: Current D.A. Steve Cooley. Former L.A. Public Defender Mike Judge, L.A. City Councilman Bernard Parks; SFV Cong. Howard Berman; Michele Beals Bagneris, City Attorney of Pasadena; Barry Brucker, Mayor of Beverly Hills; Charisse Bremond Weaver, President of the Brotherhood Crusade, L.A. Times, Daily News (split with Jackson), Long Beach Press Telegram, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, PORAC (split with Jackson).

What the buzz is saying: Cooley endorsement doesn’t seem to be helping her. Turns-off Democrats and a lot of her natural base. Labor, Latinos and Democrats supporting other candidates. Could make it into the run-off.  

Yes it’s true:  Actual residence is outside L.A. County. Was on Trutanich Transition Team.in 2009.

ALAN JAY JACKSON


So far has run a puzzling campaign; raised a respectable $500,000 in campaign funds in over 18 months, but has appeared to burn through most of it several months before the first votes are cast.

Pluses: Several high-profile convictions; the only staunch Republican in the race. 

Minuses:  Is running as a Pete Wilson-Newt Gingrich Republican in a County that’s only 24% registered Republican. Has come out against Labor Unions, Latinos, and other Democrats. Has burned through 90% of campaign funds months before the first vote is cast.

Endorsements: Former California Governor Pete Wilson; L.A. County Supervisor Mike Antonovich; State Senator Ted Strickland; Congressman “Buck” McKeon”; Long Beach City Attorney Robert Shannon, Police Associations from the cities of Alhambra, Arcadia, Azuza, San Gabriel, Inglewood, and El Monte including retired Police Chiefs of El Monte, Conservative Radio Host Hugh Hewett

What the buzz is saying: Spent too much time and money attacking Trutanich and not enough raising his name ID.  Lacey will get more votes than him.  Will come in 3rd.

Yes it’s true:  Recently married.

DANETTE MEYERS


Also running to be the first black woman to become District Attorney of Los Angeles.   Endorsements are tepid and fund raising is anemic. She beat out Jaquelyn Lacey for Democratic Party endorsements.
Pluses: Well-respected in the legal community. Former President of L.A. County Bar Association          

Minuses:  Little to no name recognition. Will split African American vote with Lacey and Bobby Grace. Anemic fundraising of $160,000 in over a year with very little left for the final two weeks of the primary campaign.

Endorsements:  Former L.A. County D.A. Gil Garcetti, Former Deputy D.A. John Lynch, Quincy Jones, Beverly Hills Police Officers Association; Stonewall Democratic Clubs, Beverly Hills, and West Hollywood Democratic Clubs; Association of Deputy District Attorneys, National Woman Political Caucus, Culver City Democratic Club.

What the buzz is saying: Vendetta against Cooley and Lacey. Temperamental. Speaks her mind.  Might be looking to leverage her campaign to gain a promotion in the D.A’s office.  Has no chance.

Yes it’s true:  Fed-up with the Cooley-Lacey regime. Prosecuted Lindsay Lohan for necklace theft until case was kicked to Trutanich’s office.

BOBBY GRACE


Might be the most steady and consistent prosecutor in the race. Consistently gets convictions in high profile murder cases. Definitely has a bright future as a Prosecutor or in private practice.

Pluses: Nice guy. Good lawyer. Promising future.  Minuses:  Little to no name recognition. Will split African American vote with Lacey and Meyers. Raised less than $75,000 for campaign in over 17 months, which demonstrates anemic support.  Practically no campaign funds left.

Endorsements:  Rick Tuttle (former L.A. County Tax Assessor); Rita Walters, former L.A. City Councilwoman (9th District), several prominent African American lawyers in private practice.

What the buzz is saying:  Won’t make it into the run-off.

Yes it’s true:  Has the most Facebook friends of any candidate.

JOHN BREAULT III


In every race there’s always one “joke” candidate. Think Pat Paulsen for President or Gary Coleman for California Governor. The beautiful thing about America is anyone with a filing fee and enough legitimate signatures can run for office.  John Breault III is that candidate in the 2012 primary for Los Angeles County District Attorney.
Pluses:  Blank slate. Deputy D.A. for 43 years. Public knows nothing about him.

Minuses:  No name ID. No funds to promote candidacy.

Endorsements:  None announced to date.

What the buzz is saying: 69 year old looney who’s about to reitre from the D.A’s office after 43 years. Probably wants to tell his grandchildren he once was on the ballot.

Yes it’s true:  Joined the office when Joe Busch was D.A

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great analysis. Wait til the crap comes out on Jackie. She'll be begging Bobby Grace for a referal.

Anonymous said...

Alan Jackson will come in 2nd, not Jackie Lacey. Jackie has no constiuency except Deputies in her office she brow beats to vote for her.

Everyone hates the Times. Notice their circulation is plummenting.

Anonymous said...

Who are all these candidates? I've never heard of any of them.

Anonymous said...

Jacquelyn Lacey failed to participate in an African American political forum held last week, apparently believing she’ll win the race with all the Republican money D.A. Steve Cooley is funneling into her campaign and that she, likewise, has no need for the votes of African-Americans.

Those of us in the community will remember that when it comes time to vote.

Anonymous said...

@6:31pm - Cat owners subscribe to the Times because they need the paper for obvious reasons.

Anonymous said...

Did you see the L.A. Times piece today on Jackie's "twinkie" defense?

What an embarrassment to all of us in the office. Our Chief Deputy can't even tell the truth when she's under oath, and then tries to blame it on some ridiculous excuse. Can't wait til she's out of the office.

Anonymous said...

Jackie should have to resign immediately. There is no excuse for her lying under oath. This was not some stupid pledge. She was under oath for chrissake and she has the gall to say "Her eating habits are bad" and "she has low energy in the afternoon."

What if everyone took this position? She is not qualified to be D.A. Lying under oath disqualifies her.

Anonymous said...

Spacey Lacey is a douche. She's also a Joke candidate. No way she ever gets more than 50% ever.

Anonymous said...

Wonder if Spacey-Lacey is spacey about the millions of tax payer funds being used to pay high priced downtown lawyers to defend her and Cooley's misbehavior?

Alan Jackson could end up beating her ass in this race.

Anonymous said...

USC is doing a tracking poll that shows Trutanich is way ahead. Danette Meyers is polling 2nd. Jackson thrid, Lacey fourth.